Jason Beedell
Director, Research
There are three likely phases now that Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union was triggered on 29 March.
Click to view full details and timeline as a PDF
Phase 1 separation
March to June
Remaining 27 EU Member States to formulate guidelines for the EC to use in negotiations with the UK. EC to recommend how to conduct the negotiations to the Council, which must agree them.
July / August 2017
Likely formal start of negotiations.
December 2018
Likely end of negotiations to allow ratification by the 27 remaining states.
April 2019
End of two year negotiating period. 27 remaining states unlikely to unanimously agree extension to keep pressure on the UK.
Phase 2 transition
March 2017 onwards
UK to establish its position with WTO on whether it can adopt, as a separate country, the same terms as the EU currently has, including with third countries – known as ‘grand fathering’ rights.
March 2019 onwards
Once the separation is final, with or without an agreement, there is no time limit on the transition period needed to start putting the new relationship in place.
If there is no agreement, UK-EU trade will be governed by WTO rules.
The UK may not want to offer other countries deals that differ greatly from EU trade standards as it could jeopardise the UK-EU agreement.
Great Repeal Bill starts to amend EU law that was converted into UK law.
EU will have to ‘de-UK’ its laws and trade agreements, which may lead to some being renegotiated as the UK’s departure is a fundamental change.
Late 2019 – early 2020
Possible 2nd Scottish referendum.
Phase 3 re-engagement
March 2019 onwards
UK wants a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement and a new customs agreement with the EU. The EU has still not expressed its views on this matter.
Any agreement will have to be ratified by all 27 remaining Member States, including sub-national approval, like the Canada-Europe Trade Agreement (CETA) in 2016 which was temporarily blocked by Walloon Belgium.